713-627-3200
On This Page
Aviation Forecasts
The Regional Aviation System Plan projects aviation activity for the 26 system airports in the Houston-Galveston region to 2015, 2020 and 2030. The forecasts cover general aviation (GA) operations, based aircraft numbers and fleet mix.
Aviation demand to 2030 is forecast in this study, through a combination of several forecasting methods that use different approaches to estimating future demand:
Multiple Regression Analysis
Multiple Regression Analysis considers the basic socioeconomic correlates of aviation activity in the local area to forecast demand; and
Market Share Analysis
Market Share Analysis compares the relative attractiveness of airports in the area to forecast each airport’s future share of all regional aviation activity.
These forecasts are compared with published forecasts by the FAA and TxDOT, and a recommended forecast is developed for each airport. The 26 system airports are expected to grow from 1.94 million operations and 3,032 based general aviation aircraft to over 2.44 million operations and over 3,800 based aircraft in 2030. This growth is at a slightly higher rate than general aviation in the nation and the state. Jets based at regional system airports will increase from 8 percent to 14 percent of the fleet, as the proportion of single-engine propeller aircraft in the fleet drops from 72 percent to 69 percent.
Based Aircraft and Operations Forecasts
Commercial Service Airports
| Based Aircraft | Operations | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airport | 2008 | 2030 | % Change | Annual Growth | 2008 | 2030 | % Change | Annual Growth | |
| George Bush Intercontinental Airport | 72 | 83 | 15% | 0.7% | 591,700 | 629,600 | 6% | 0.3% | |
| William P. Hobby Airport | 273 | 298 | 9% | 0.4% | 219,000 | 242,800 | 11% | 0.5% | |
Reliever Airports
| Based Aircraft | Operations | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airport | 2008 | 2030 | % Change | Annual Growth | 2008 | 2030 | % Change | Annual Growth | |
| Texas Gulf Coast Regional Airport | 99 | 128 | 29% | 1.3% | 60,000 | 86,500 | 44% | 2% | |
| David Wayne Hooks Memorial Airport | 478 | 595 | 24% | 1.1% | 247,800 | 326,300 | 32% | 1.4% | |
| Ellington Airport | 227 | 259 | 14% | 0.6% | 153,200 | 191,700 | 25% | 1.1% | |
| Houston Southwest Airport | 140 | 200 | 43% | 1.9 | 46,400 | 75,500 | 63% | 2.9% | |
| La Porte Municipal Airport | 167 | 194 | 16% | 0.7% | 79,400 | 96,800 | 22% | 1% | |
| Lone Star Executive Airport | 207 | 317 | 53% | 2.4% | 83,900 | 131,500 | 57% | 2.6% | |
| Pearland Regional Airport | 216 | 273 | 26% | 1.2% | 87,400 | 128,200 | 47% | 2.1% | |
| Scholes International Airport | 141 | 200 | 42% | 1.9% | 35,500 | 48,700 | 37% | 1.7% | |
| Sugar Land Regional Airport | 127 | 173 | 36% | 1.6% | 75,600 | 101,600 | 34% | 1.6% | |
| West Houston Airport | 316 | 419 | 33% | 1.5% | 103,000 | 142,500 | 38% | 1.7% | |
General Aviation Airports
| Based Aircraft | Operations | ||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Airport | 2008 | 2030 | % Change | Annual Growth | 2008 | 2030 | % Change | Annual Growth | |
| Bay City Municipal Airport | 43 | 61 | 42% | 1.9% | 8,800 | 13,800 | 57% | 2.6% | |
| Baytown Airport | 31 | 50 | 61% | 2.8% | 9,600 | 13,900 | 45% | 2% | |
| Chambers County Airport | 11 | 15 | 36% | 1.7% | 3,000 | 5,000 | 67% | 3% | |
| Cleveland Municipal Airport | 43 | 62 | 44% | 2.0% | 14,200 | 21,800 | 54% | 2.4% | |
| Eagle Lake Airport | 28 | 39 | 39% | 1.8% | 13,200 | 23,300 | 77% | 3.5% | |
| Houston Executive Airport | 37 | 75 | 103% | 4.7% | 9,000 | 20,000 | 122% | 5.6% | |
| Huntsville Municipal Airport | 38 | 60 | 58% | 2.6% | 21,400 | 34,700 | 62% | 2.8% | |
| Liberty Municipal Airport | 13 | 15 | 15% | 0.7% | 5,700 | 8,400 | 47% | 2.2% | |
| Palacios Municipal Airport | 16 | 25 | 56% | 2.6% | 3,000 | 4,100 | 37% | 1.7% | |
| Robert R. Wells, Jr. Airport | 12 | 19 | 58% | 2.7% | 2,800 | 4,100 | 46% | 2.1% | |
| Weiser Airpark | 78 | 91 | 17% | 0.8% | 38,000 | 51,200 | 35% | 1.6% | |
| Wharton Regional Airport | 58 | 76 | 31% | 1.4% | 11,800 | 18,900 | 60% | 2.7% | |
| North Houston Business Airport | 56 | 99 | 77% | 3.5% | 10,000 | 19,000 | 90% | 4.1% | |
| Winnie-Stowell Airport | 11 | 13 | 18% | 0.8% | 3,000 | 4,200 | 40% | 1.8% | |
| Total | 2938 | 3839 | 31% | 1.4% | 1,936,400 | 2,444,100 | 26% | 1.2% | |
The forecasts do not include 43 military aircraft at Ellington Airport and 24 at Lonestar Executive Airport.
The number of aircraft at Baytown increased to 58 after the forecasts were completed.
An analysis of the capacity for aviation operations at the system airports indicates that there is more capacity in the regional system than forecast operations. System capacity is currently about 4.47 million operations, more than twice the current demand. Although system capacity is predicted to decline slightly to 4.32 million operations by 2030 as larger aircraft (which require larger spacing for takeoffs and landings) increases relative to smaller aircraft in the region, this still exceeds the forecast demand by 56 percent.