Socioeconomic Forecasts
We have two forecast products, a forecast for 8 counties (Brazoria, Chambers, Fort Bend, Galveston, Harris, Liberty, Montgomery, Waller) in the Transportation Planning Area, and a forecast for the remaining 5 counties (Austin, Colorado, Matagorda, Walker, Wharton) in the H-GAC region.
8-County Forecast
The primary purpose of this forecast is to support Travel Demand Modeling which is used in Regional Transportation Planning. H-GAC also uses the forecast for other long range planning purposes. Our forecasting model is built for one-thousand by one-thousand foot grid cells. This gives us the flexibility to deliver the Forecast in various geographic units, such as Regional Analysis Zones, Census Tracts, or other geographies that are meaningful to the users. The Forecast is developed in two phases. During Phase I, we use a trends-based model to forecast total population and employment for each county. During Phase II, we use UrbanSim Land Use Forecasting Model to determine the distribution of population and employment within each county.
Read about the forecast: 2035 Regional Growth Forecast (PDF) 7.5M
Technical Documentation
Forecasting Methodology Overview (PDF) 9K
Control Totals Forecast Methodology (PDF) 23K
Small Area Allocation Methodology (PDF) 23K
Query 2035 Regional Growth Forecast Data
Create custom tables using the 2035 Regional Growth Forecast data.
Create custom tables using the 2035 Regional Growth Forecast data.
View and Query Maps for 2035 Regional Growth Forecast
General Users
Access through web browser (Internet Explorer only!)
Instructions
GIS Users
Access via ArcGIS Desktop
Instructions
Employment and Population Forecast Maps
Employment Density Map 2005-2035 (PDF) 1.5MB
Population Density Map 2005-2035 (PDF) 1.5MB
Regional Analysis Zone (RAZ) Index Map (PDF) 350K
Visit the Community & Environmental Map Book for more maps:
www.h-gac.com/go/maps
Employment and Population Forecast Data
Each table includes annual (2005-2035) data for the number of households (H_), wage & salary employment (J_), and population (P_) in households.
Cities (XLS) 103K
Counties (XLS) 28K
Regional Analysis Zones (RAZ) (XLS) 134K
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) (XLS) 2M
One Mile Grid (XLS) 5.3M
ZIP Codes (XLS) 157K
Census Tracts (XLS) 557K
Shape files are provided for GIS users.
Cities (ZIP) 153K
Counties (ZIP) 264K
Regional Analysis Zones (RAZ) (ZIP) 369K
Traffic Analysis Zones (TAZ) (ZIP) 1.2M
One Mile Grid (ZIP) 278K
ZIP Codes (ZIP) 219K
Census Tracts (ZIP) 288K
5-County Forecast
The primary purpose of this forecast is to support H-GAC's long range planning efforts in non-metropolitan counties. The Forecast is developed in two phases. During Phase I, we develop a composite forecast for 2035 for total population and employment for each county. During Phase II, we allocate population and employment growth to census tracts within each county.
Technical Documentation
Non-Metropolitan Counties Forecast Map and Data (PDF) 1.3M
Non-Metropolitan Counties Forecast Methodology (PDF) 13K
If the information you are looking for is not here, or if you have a question about the forecast, please send your request to:
forecast@h-gac.com